Saturday, January 11, 2020
Behavior Change Paper Essay
Imagine a world where college students can step out of their school and walk into a McDonalds. Imagine a world where soda machines continue to make millions of dollars per year by placing soda machines in schools and universities. Imagine a world where in our society, approximately twenty percent of todayââ¬â¢s youth are considered obese. Imagine a world where obesity is killing more people than smoking each day. Imagine this world as our reality. Worldwide, obesity is a growing concern due to a wide range of contributing factors, and is an epidemic that can be controlled if a healthy lifestyle of regular exercise and a well-balanced diet are maintained and incorporated into our everyday life. Because obesity is so prevalent in the United States especially the southeastern portion such as North Carolina, I decided to do my behavior change project on increasing my physical activity for six weeks by exercising at least three days a week, balancing my diet, and also substituting soda s and juices for more water. With obesity on the rise, I believe that it is very important to stay fit and maintain a healthy diet. Increasing my physical activity was definitely challenging, but I learned so much about myself throughout, and I am so grateful that I accomplished such a challenging task. In the past I have tried to accomplish this goal, but I noticed while doing this project, that I started to approach the same barriers that I did when trying to accomplish this goal once before. One of the main challenges was time management. I could never find the time to squeeze in thirty minutes to an hourââ¬â¢s worth of exercise when I had exams to prepare for, project deadlines, and working twenty hours every week. Who has time to exercise? When will I be able to exercise? Even though these barriers were hard to overcome, increasing my physical activity felt ten times better and helped reduce a lot of those constant stressors that I constantly kept experiencing. Obesity has become a serious public health concern affecting a significant portion of the population in countries such as the United States and ma ny other developed countriesà throughout the world. According to the American Heart Association, among Americans aged 20 and older, over 154.7 million are overweight or obese. 79.9 million were men, and 74.8 million were women. Not only are American adults obese, but also our future children of America! According to the American Heart Association, 23.9 million children and adolescents aged 2 to 19 years are overweight or obese with 33% being boys and 15% being girls. With these rising numbers, childhood obesity can potentially become the number one global killer around the world. The numbers of adult and childhood obesity are even higher among the African American and Hispanic communities, where nearly 40% of the children and adults are overweight or obese. If we donââ¬â¢t solve this problem, one third of all children born in 2000 or later, will suffer from diabetes at some point in their lives. Many others will face chronic obesity related health problems such as heart disease, high blood pressure, cancer, and asthma (ââ¬Å"Letâ â¬â¢s Moveâ⬠). One of the many ways to reduce some of the obesity trends we see as health educators is to increase physical activity by exercising and encouraging at least 30 minutes of physical activity each day. Another way to encourage change in our clients is to push and influence the many health benefits of increasing physical activity such as: weight loss, stronger heart and lungs, increased bone density, reduced risk of heart disease and some types of cancer, temporary relief from daily stressors, more confidence about how we see ourselves, and more energy. Who wants to huff and puff just going up one flight or stairs, or jumping to get into our jeans? Increasing physical activity has many benefits that are not only physical, but mental as well. As a health educator, I would encourage my client to take physical activity one day at a time. Donââ¬â¢t bombard yourself with too much activity in one day that you become too sore to want to exercise the next day. Also, set goals! No goals are impossible and make the goals fit you! If you desire to lose weight, think to yourself what are you willing to sacrifice to accomplish this goal. How much do you want to lose? In what time frame do you desire? Another big advice that I would encourage is to organize your schedule! One barrier that I continuously experienced throughout this project was time management and finding the time to actually get out and get moving. One big accomplishment to overcome this barrier that I discovered was looking into my planner and planning out the times and days that I had enough time toà exercise. Not only organize, but also find an activity that you love and own it! One physical activity that I found fun during this project was yoga! Yoga really put me in a peaceful state of mind and it made me forget how much homework I had to complete at home or whether I paid my phone bill on time. I really connected with my body and loved it! Encourage positive self-talk! During this project, I found that I would negatively talk myself out of exercising because I would be too lazy or if the weather wasnââ¬â¢t on my side I would tell myself, ââ¬Å"Oh no, canââ¬â¢t work out today because itââ¬â¢s too c old!â⬠Always think positively! Start slow and tell yourself that you CAN do it and the want and inspiration to exercise will become natural. Throughout this project, I knew that I needed a PLAN. I needed something that would inspire me three days a week to either hit the gym or go outside and engage in physical activity. One way that helped me accomplish my goal was placing sticky notes on the refrigerator to go work out or a question of whether I exercised today or not. These sticky notes also inspired my roommate to engage in physical activity as well! Hey, I mean you have no choice when you are about to grab that ice cream to look at the door and say, ââ¬Å"Oh man, should I really be eating this ice cream today?â⬠ââ¬Å"Did I work out today like I promised myself?â⬠Knowing that I had a daily reminder to exercise really pushed me to go outside and get active or if the weather was a little sticky, I would encourage myself to work out inside by doing squats during commercials of my favorite TV shows or playing tennis on my Wii for at least 30 minutes. I knew that whatever I chose to do, I wanted it to be fun and inspiring to get me up and moving and change my lazy behavior especially when it comes to exercising. Also, completing my weekly checklist really hit home for me and could help me see trends in my behavior or common obstacles that I endured for that week. Not only did the weekly checklist help, but also writing a journal illustrating my journey helped me really become motivated and show how much I have changed from the beginning of not even thinking of exercising to loving exercising and how much fun it can be once you find the right activity that suits you and makes you want to move! This project really inspired me. I canââ¬â¢t believe that it is the end and I am a little sad. I had so much fun identifying why I wasnââ¬â¢t exercising and what I could do to change my behavior. I found some common trends in my obstacles from my weekly checklist such as: homework, time management, andà self-motivation. I knew that ba sed off these common trends, I needed to find some strategies that would influence me to work out. I found that organizing my schedule, placing workout gear in my car, and managing my time really helped me accomplish my goals. Also, my new puppy Lola helped inspire me to go outside more and encourage physical activity by walking Lola everyday and not only encouraging physical activity for myself, but also Lola as well. I want her to have a healthy heart and lungs! This project was very challenging, but I knew that with the right steps of motivation, I would complete it with no worries and also continue my journey! As a future health educator, I have learned that change is hard. This behavior change project really opened my eyes to how amazing changing a behavior can be and what a long journey it can be as well. This project helped me be able to identify a behavior and target what main reasons and goals can be set behind this behavior. I really enjoyed this project and it really helped me see that I can do anything that I put my mind to. I want to continue working out and you never know, I could be your next Baywatch babe! I would encourage my clients to set goals, stick with them, and if they see themselves slipping, to bounce back and get back to it like I did. Exercising can be fun when you choose things you love! I would tie my journey to the Transtheoretical Model of behavior change. the Transtheoretical Model (TTM) focuses on the decision-making of the individual and is a model of intentional change. The TTM operates on the assumption that people do not change behaviors quickly and decisively. Rather, change in behavior, especially habitual behavior, occurs continuously through a cyclical process. The TTM is not a theory but a model; different behavioral theories and constructs can be applied to various stages of the model where they may be most effective. The TTM posits that individuals move through six stages of change: precontemplation, contemplation, preparation, action, maintenance, and termination. For each stage of change, different intervention strategies are most effective at moving the person to the next stage of change and subsequently through the model to maintenance, the ideal stage of behavior. In the beginning, I can defi nitely say that I was in the precontemplation stage where I had no intention of exercising or changing my lazy behavior. I knew in my mind that I was not going to change and that this would be a waste of time, but then I entered the contemplation stage where I said to myself, ââ¬Å"Hmm maybe I couldà stop being a couch potato and see what exercising is all about.â⬠As the project progressed, I entered the preparation or determination phase and got excited to get moving and start my journey of working out or doing some type of exercising three days per week. I set out a game plan and organized a schedule to motivate me to move and also get my roommate and puppy up and moving too! Thatââ¬â¢s when I took action! I got up and stayed focused on actually working out and staying healthy! I relapsed a few times, but I never let it get me down! I knew that increasing my physical activity would help me and I need to MAINTAIN it! Now, I am in the maintenance phase where although this project is over, I want to continue doing yoga and maybe look into some Zumba! A little shake shake shake can always get you up and moving and ready to start your day! This behavior change project has shown me that I can do anything that I put my mind to. I really enjoyed learning about myself throughout this entire process and so thankful that I have successfully decided to incorporate a little exercise in some way throughout my day. I have changed for the better in a way that I thought I never could. My parents are proud of me, my friends are proud of me, and most of all, I am proud of me. I overcame my laziness and actually found something I can possibly love in my own way and decided that I am a great person through it all. I have flaws and I also make mistakes that I am not proud of, but this is I. This is whom I am and changing has shown me that I can do anything and has given me a better insight as to who I am as an individual. This class has shown me with hard work and self-motivation, I can accomplish anything that is placed in front of me. This experience will always share a place in my heart and I will never forget the memories and life lessons that I have collected along my journey of becoming a better me.
Tuesday, January 7, 2020
Benefits And Drawbacks Of Cash Transfer Programmes Essay
These days, the world is still facing the poverty. The programme calls social protection was established to address poverty. Social protection has many forms including cash transfers which are now popular and attractive by their accomplishments around the world. Unsurprisingly, cash transfer has been held by many as the latest universal panacea to attack poverty. However, there still be an argument over this belief. Therefore, in the essay I will focus on cash transfer programmes whether they are latest universal panacea to solve poverty or not, including the evaluation of these programmes. There are five parts in this essay, begin with the definitions of social protection. Followed by, the interpretations and types of cash transfers, which are conditional and unconditional cash transfer. The third part is the discussions of the rationale why cash transfers are seen as the latest universal panacea for attacking poverty and why they are not. Thus, the fourth part is the arguments betw een benefits and drawbacks of cash transfers from scholars and studies. Finally, the evaluation of the arguments of scholars whether cash transfers are good or not. From all arguments that will be discussed in this essay insist that cash transfers are not the latest universal panacea for attacking poverty and they are not good to follow. What is Social protection? Social protection has been introduced in many parts of the world for a while. At the end of the nineteenth century, developingShow MoreRelatedEssay about Pros and Cons of the Private Insurance Industry2717 Words à |à 11 Pageswithdraw its coverage of vulnerable areas. However, insurance mechanism can bring various benefits in terms of loss and damage associated with natural disasters and increasing efforts for equity in the industry in the world. I shall illustrate the benefits of insurance mechanism and a wide range of activities that the industry has worked on, and the potential of a contribution to the international aid programme as a challenge in the future. 2. Insurance mechanism What is insurance? 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Friday, January 3, 2020
Paul, the Imposter - 8234 Words
Paul, a Liar?! If Yeshua had in fact been referring to Paul as a false apostle and liar in the book of Revelation, how is it he was a liar? Obviously, the claim of apostleship itself might be considered a lie. But in my thinking, the label of liar implies a person who uses conscious intent to deceive. When Paul called himself an apostle, I believe he really thought he was one. Therefore I would have a hard time actually labeling him as a liar on those grounds alone. I would call him conceited and self deceived. Interestingly enough, just by the way Yeshua states it, he appears to make the same distinction. And you have tested those who say they are apostles and are not, and have found them liars. Revelation 2:2 NKJV Notice that theâ⬠¦show more contentâ⬠¦the Pharisees. (see previous three verses. Acts 15:5-7) Even Yeshua called their idea of the Law a burden. He said: The scribes and the Pharisees sit in Moses seat. Therefore whatever they tell you to observe, that observe and do. But do not do according to their works; for they say and do not do. For they bind heavy burdens hard to bear, and lay them on mens shoulders; but they themselves will not move them with one of their fingers. Matt 23:2-4 NKJV I believe these words were echoing in Peters ears when he heard the Pharisees demand that the Gentiles keep the Law. He knew what their idea of the Law was with all its oral traditionsÃ⦠a burden! Yeshua had said: My yoke is easy and my burden is light. Matt.11:30 NKJV The apostle John also said: For this is the love of God, that we keep His commandments. And His commandments are not burdensome. 1John 5:3 NKJV The true unadulterated Law of Moses is not unbearable. But Peter and James did not want the Pharisees dictating to the Gentiles their idea of the Law with all its oral traditions of additions and amendments. This is what Peter was referring to when he called the Law an unbearable yoke. As the story continues, Paul and Barnabas tell of the many miracles and wonders God had worked through them among the Gentiles. Then James begins to speak, and after a short speech says: Therefore I judge that we should not trouble those from among theShow MoreRelatedThe Bible, The Inspired Word Of God Essay1677 Words à |à 7 PagesIntroduction The Bible, the inspired Word of God was written by His ordained writers. One of these was Paul, a great believer and follower of Christ, who was committed and dedicated to the spread of the gospel. He faced many afflictions and challenges on the course of his journeys that took him to different regions of the world, in the hope of spreading the Word of God to the many regions that had not received the Good News. On the course of his travels, he met different people along the way butRead More Extreme Apathy in John Guareââ¬â¢s Six Degrees of Separation Essay3556 Words à |à 15 PagesNew York socialites. Paul is the Eliza Doolittle of the modern age, adopting all the skills, stories, and styles that make him the perfect houseguest. Pauls charisma ensures that at every encounter, his presence leaves its mark. One broke and broken young man named Rick, after losing his last dime and last shred of dignity to an encounter with Paul, throws himself from his third floor tenement apartme nt. 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Monday, December 30, 2019
The Struggle For Sanity By Charlotte Perkins Gilman
The Struggle for Sanity The Narrator, Charlotte Perkins Gilmanââ¬â¢s Short Story, ââ¬Å"The Yellow Wallpaperâ⬠has been one of the most scrutinized pieces of literature. Critics have analyzed it from various perspectives including feminist, anti-feminist, psychological to clinical. Some even claim the narratorââ¬â¢s work as an early feminist indictment of Victorian patriarchy. The Yellow Wallpaper is a short story about the narratorââ¬â¢s life experience afflicted with a depressive episode since adolescence. The narrator tells the story of a slight hysterical tendency after marriage and the birth of her child, driven to near madness was ordered to remain in bed, a frequently prescribed period of inactivity thought to cure hysteria and nervous conditions in women. The story appears to take place during a time period where women were oppressed. Women were treated as second rate people in society during this time period. The narrator of the story is symbolic of all women in the late 1800s, alien ated and a prisoner of a confining society. In the Yellow Wallpaper, the narrator addresses the protagonist of women in nineteenth century society within the realms of marriage, maternity and domesticity, mental illness and the medical treatment of women, and the ââ¬Å"Yellow Wallpaperâ⬠as a symbol of the oppression of a woman who feels trapped in her roles as wife and mother. ââ¬Å"The Yellow Wallpaper was written during a time of great transformation. The narratorââ¬â¢s short story tells herShow MoreRelatedThe Yellow Wallpaper719 Words à |à 3 PagesThe Yellow Wallpaper In the grips of depression and the restrictions prescribed by her physician husband a woman struggles with maintaining her sanity and purpose. As a new mother and a writer, and she is denied the responsibility and intellectual stimulation of these elements in her life as part of her rest cure. Her world is reduced to prison-like enforcement on her diet, exercise, sleep and intellectual activities until she is well again. As she gives in to the restrictions and fallsRead MoreAnalysis Of The Yellow Wallpaper By Charlotte Perkins Gilman1269 Words à |à 6 Pagessociety s conventional views is a challenging thing to do; however, Charlotte Perkins Gilman does an excellent job fighting that battle by writing ââ¬Å"The Yellow Wallpaper,â⬠one of the most captivating pieces of literature from her time. By using the conventions of a narrative, such as character, setting, and point of view, she is capable of bringing the reader into a world that society during that time would have mocke d. Gilman uses the motif of irony, the symbolism of the wallpaper, and her writingRead MoreDon Robertson and Charlotte Perkins Gilman explore the theme of personal identity throughout their1300 Words à |à 6 PagesDon Robertson and Charlotte Perkins Gilman explore the theme of personal identity throughout their works, from Robertsonââ¬â¢s The Greatest Thing Since Sliced Bread, to Gilmanââ¬â¢s The Yellow Wallpaper. Though both Don Robertson and Charlotte Perkins Gilman both illustrate and explore the theme of personal identity in very different ways, there are also many similar ways it is illustrated and explored by both authors as well. Don Robertson shows this theme of personal identity through Morris Birdââ¬â¢s cautiousRead MoreThe Yellow Wallpaper By Charlotte Perkins Gilman1555 Words à |à 7 Pageshabitants minds. Competently so, a handful of these beings can write and express these tangled minds into compositions that leave the reader cognized and fascinated. Respe ctably, an author that always seems to come along any viewerââ¬â¢s mind is Charlotte Perkins Gilman, known especially for her controversial short story, The Yellow Wallpaper. The piece deals with a woman who is on a forced vacation from her conventional role as a wife and a mother, diagnosed and treated by her doctor as well as her husbandRead MoreThe Yellow Wallpaper And The Story Of An Hour Analysis780 Words à |à 4 PagesThroughout history, women have struggled to be seen as equals and have had to fight for their freedom from the roles society placed upon them. Kate Chopin and Charlotte Perkins Gilman both use their literary works to show the challenges women went through, and how they battled for the freedoms they desperately wanted. ââ¬Å"The Yellow Wallpaperâ⬠is a short story about a woman that goes to a summer home to rest and get well under the supervision of her husband who is also a physician. Her husband decidedRead MoreThe Yellow Wall Paper By Charlotte Gil man1518 Words à |à 7 PagesLiterature was a privilege mostly representing a manââ¬â¢s world with virile words, thoughts and manly conclusions. A few womenââ¬â¢s names appeared in iteracy showing a steady determination to raise their voices against menââ¬â¢s dominancy. Charlotte (Anna) Perkins (Stetson) Gilman is certainly the most noticeable name in American Literature in late nineteenth century. In her remarkable writing, she uses symbolisms as a dominant instrument for fighting inequality and oppression in menââ¬â¢s world. The Yellow Wall-PaperRead MoreThe Yellow Wallpaper By Charlotte Perkins Gilman764 Words à |à 4 PagesDarius Tann Professor King English 101.023 30 March 2016 The Yellow Wallpaper In Charlotte Perkins Gilmanââ¬â¢s short piece, The Yellow Wallpaper, the narrator faces many adversities as a woman such as: mental health, and living in a time period when they are not treated equal to men. Gilmanââ¬â¢s personal life is reflected through this story because she dealt with similar challenges the narrator herself has to overcome. ââ¬Å"Her lectures, novels, short stories, magazine articles (includingRead MoreThe Yellow Wallpaper By Charlotte Perkins Gilman846 Words à |à 4 Pagesdignified journey of the admirable story ââ¬Å"The Yellow Wallpaperâ⬠created by Charlotte Perkins Gilmanââ¬â¢s, gave the thought whether or not the outcome was influenced by female oppression and feminism. Female oppression and feminist encouraged a series of women to have the freedom to oppose for their equal rights. Signified events in the story ââ¬Å"The Yellow Wallpaperâ⬠resulted of inequality justice for women. Charlotte Perkins Gilman gave the reader different l iterary analysis to join the unjustifiable lifestyleRead MoreShort Story Comparison1241 Words à |à 5 PagesScales 1! Katrina Scales David Miles ENC-1102 16 July 2015 A Yellow Rose It is likely that after reading short stories The Yellow Wallpaper by Charlotte Perkins Gilman and A Rose for Emily by William Faulkner, any sensible reader will feel disturbed in at least the slightest. Both texts contain neurotic women of unsound mind who have deathly obsessions. At first glance, these stories do not seem to have much in common; they have been written through opposite perspectives, one neglects to be chronologicalRead More The Yellow Wallpaper as an Attack on Radical Feminism1139 Words à |à 5 Pagespatriarchal society. Interestingly, Charlotte Perkins Gilman never intended the latter. The primary intent of her short story is to criticize of a physician prescribed treatment called rest cure. The treatment, which she underwent, required female patients to ââ¬Å"ââ¬â¢live as domestic a life as possibleââ¬â¢Ã¢â¬ (Gilman). This oppressive treatment, however, parallels the oppression of women. As such, ââ¬Å"The Yellow Wallpaperâ⬠has been interpreted as a feminist work. In the story, Gilman comments on the status of women
Thursday, December 26, 2019
Learning German Adjectives and Colors
German adjectives, like English ones, usually go in front of the noun they modify: derà guteà Mann (the good man), dasà großeà Haus (the big house/building), dieà schà ¶neà Dame (the pretty lady). Unlike English adjectives, a German adjective in front of a noun has to have an ending (-eà in the examples above). Just what that ending will be depends on several factors, includingà genderà (der, die, das) andà caseà (nominative, accusative, dative). But most of the time the ending is an -eà or an -enà (in the plural). Withà ein-words, the ending varies according to the modified nouns gender (see below). Look at the following table for the adjective endings in the nominative (subject) case: Withà definite articleà (der, die, das) -à Nominative case Masculineder Femininedie Neuterdas Pluraldie der neu Wagenthe new car die schà ¶n Stadtthe beautiful city das alt Autothe old car die neu Bà ¼cherthe new books Withà indefinite articleà (eine, kein, mein) -à Nom. case Masculineein Feminineeine Neuterein Pluralkeine ein neu Wagena new car eine schà ¶n Stadta beautiful city ein alt Autoan old car keine neu Bà ¼cherno new books Note that withà ein-words, since the article may not tell us the gender of the following noun, the adjective ending often does this instead (-esà à das, -erà à der; see above). As in English, a German adjective can also comeà afterà the verb (predicate adjective): Das Haus ist groß. (The house is large.) In such cases, the adjective will have NO ending. Farben (Colors) The German words for colorsà usually function as adjectives and take the normal adjective endings (but see exceptions below). In certain situations, colors can also be nouns and are thus capitalized: eine Bluse inà Blau (a blouse in blue); das Blaueà vom Himmel versprechen (to promise heaven and earth, lit., the blue of the heavens). The chart below shows some of the more common colors with sample phrases.à Youll learn that the colors in feeling blue or seeing red may not mean the same thing in German. A black eye in German is blau (blue). Farbe Color Color Phrases with Adjective Endings rot red der rote Wagen (the red car), der Wagen ist rot rosa pink die rosa Rosen (the pink roses)* blau blue ein blaues Auge (a black eye), er ist blau (he's drunk) hell-blau lightblue die hellblaue Bluse (the light blue blouse)** dunkel-blau darkblue die dunkelblaue Bluse (the dark blue blouse) grà ¼n green der grà ¼ne Hut (the green hat) gelb yellow die gelben Seiten (yellow pages), ein gelbes Auto weiß white das weiße Papier (the white paper) schwarz black der schwarze Koffer (the black suitcase) *Colors ending in -aà (lila, rosa) do not take the normal adjective endings.**Light or dark colors are preceded byà hell- (light) orà dunkel- (dark), as inà hellgrà ¼nà (light green) orà dunkelgrà ¼nà (dark green).
Saturday, December 21, 2019
Business Forecasting regarding Seasonally Adjusted Sales Statistics Project
Essays on Business Forecasting regarding Seasonally Adjusted Sales Statistics Project The paper ââ¬Å"Business Forecasting regarding Seasonally Adjusted Sales" is aà worthy example of a statistics project on finance accounting. Exponential smoothing is a moving average technique used in the analysis of time-series data as well in forecasting. We chose the best exponential models where recent collect data have more weight in making a prediction as compared to the older observation, we consider several factors like in this case where we have to consider whether the data is significantly influenced by a seasonal factor as well as trend. Secondly, we have to consider whether the data has a linear trend and lastly whether the time series problem is stationary.In this case, the most suitable is the triple exponential smoothing (winters) due to the reason that sales are seasonal and also the sales in which the trend is being investigated are not stationary. In addition, to this in order to ascertain the smoothing contract, we will use the mean of the squared deviation of the forecasted values and the actual sales. In this case, we will calculate the mean of the squared sum of errorsà (Jensen Bard, 2003).In using the winter s method the following Alpha =0.3, Beta = 0.7 was used. These coefficients were obtained through the trial and error method with a minimum error of 0.04 and a maximum error of 1.95.Forecasted sales for the period of jan2011 to December 2011,d) ReportIn order to ensure stability in the earnings of the firm, the management has a tendency of predicting the sales by use of times data available and this data is used in forecasting the future situation in the firm. In a motive to ensure that the sales of the organizations are maximized the firm decided to carry exponential smoothing of the sales forecasted bay applying the various methods like Double exponential (Browns), Double exponential ( Holts), single exponential smoothing, ARIMA model and the triple exponential smoothing.à After careful analysis and consideration, the manag ement decided to use the triple exponential method by winter. This was due to the reason the time series data concerned was seasonal in nature that sales vary with seasons. This method has a high level of accuracy, whereby it has to mean standard deviation is about 22.22 this showcase that this method is significantly feasible.From the above discussion, an MSD 22.22 shows that the level of risk is minimum thus there method is sufficient in the prediction process. The winterââ¬â¢s method will predict sales of the twelve months with an accuracy of 88%, but through the prediction, the management is likely to face the following problems; validation of alpha value, the value was obtained from trial and error method this method is not significantly valid. Second, the prediction values are based on historical data which might not reflect the present situation in the market.The forecast data will help in planning since the sales forecast will be used to calculate the market share that th e company will control, thus if the company wishes to increase its market share the management will undertake an action that will lead to widening the market that firm sells its product. The forecasted sales will also help in determining the profitability of the firm in the future.Although there were variations between the actual sales and predicted then these have been caused by normal sampling errors, random influences, and situations where future sales turn out to be radically different from the past. à Although this method is faced by the trail method in establishing the alpha and it also very complicated analysts expect the answers to be statistically feasible.In conclusion, there is a need for forecasting to be used as a tool in planning since it gives a representation of future earnings of the firm thus it can be of help in plan formulation since it provides information that is almost true.
Wednesday, December 18, 2019
Kill A Mockingbird By Harper Lee - 830 Words
Courage in To Kill a Mockingbird Harper Leeââ¬â¢s novel, To Kill a Mockingbird, is the story of two children coming of age and learning about their hometown and the whole world. The two children in the story are Jem and Scout Finch. Jem and Scout live with their father, Atticus, in Maycomb County. Throughout the story, many problems arise which teach both children about bravery. The three bravest characters in the novel include their neighbor Mrs. Dubose, a convicted black man named Tom Robinson, and their father Atticus. Mrs. Dubose is an old, irritable, and morphine addicted neighbor of the Finchââ¬â¢s that lives down the street. The children get to know her by reading to her everyday after school. Mrs. Dubose is the perfect example of a braveâ⬠¦show more contentâ⬠¦He decides to make his own decision, and courageously climbs over the fence at the prison. He shows emotional bravery by making his own choice, even if the consequences are brutal. ââ¬Å" ââ¬ËThey shot him,ââ¬â¢ said Atticus. ââ¬ËHe was running. It was during their exercise period. They said he just broke into a blind raving charge at the fence and started climbing overââ¬â¢ â⬠(Lee, 315). It took Tom a great deal of bravery to climb the fence knowing he would be shot. Tom makes this decision because of the slim chance he could get away and run. Tom knew it was inevitable he was going to be sentenced guilty and sent to death. He had two options: continue waiting for weeks for his inescapable death sentence or, bravely make his own decision by jumping the fence. Tomââ¬â¢s actions teach the Finch children and the readers to always take a risk no matter how terrifying it may be. It may not have worked out for Tom, but at least he made his own choice instead of allowing others to decide his fate for him. Lastly, Atticus Finch shows both physical and emotional bravery multiple times throughout the story. He first exhibits his physical bravery by shooting down a rabid dog. ââ¬Å"With movements so swift they seemed simultaneous, Atticusââ¬â¢s hand yanked a ball-tipped lever as he brought the gun to his shoulder. The rifle cracked. Tim Johnson leaped, flopped over and crumpled on the sidewalk in a brown-and-white heap. He didnââ¬â¢t know what hit himâ⬠(127). The towns own sheriff
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